Stock market exuberance rational or not

Stock market exuberance rational or not

Posted: NumLock On: 24.05.2017

Eeveryone living in America today has a higher standard of living than the President and his family had 90 years ago. Goldman Sachs' Charlie Himmelberg and Marty Young find evidence that "animal spirits" are driving sentiment along party lines Sentiment indicators have rallied hard since the election of Donald Trump. There is active debate over the reasons for this improvement. To some extent, it likely reflects improvements in the underlying macro data leading up to the election.

The unemployment rate, for example, fell from 5. On the other hand, many investors believe that the rally in US sentiment and asset markets reflects post-election expectations of tax cuts, infrastructure and defense spending, and deregulation.

Irrational Exuberance

Indeed, our US economists expect fiscal easing will cumulatively add 0. While it is often difficult to distinguish animal spirits from rational expectations, we think differences in sentiment along demographic characteristics can help shed some light. A fascinating feature of post-election sentiment is the divergence in assessments of the economic outlook along party lines.

As of April 2, the gap between Democrats and Republicans in the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index BCCI had increased to its widest level since early The correlation between economic sentiment and political affiliation is also visible in regional data.

The regions that voted strongly for Trump are the regions that are most optimistic about the future. Interestingly, these expectations do not appear to reflect current conditions; the regions that voted for Trump are the regions that have the lowest assessment of current conditions, suggesting the jump in expectations was a response to the election.

Sentiment differences along party lines could well be rational. There are reasons sentiment may have been more vulnerable to animal spirits following this election. Voters like many economists were likely puzzled over why the last recession was so severe, why the recovery was so sluggish, or why many real incomes failed to rise. Or as Akerlof and Shiller put it in their book: The distinction between rational and irrational sentiment matters.

Go ahead… show me the difference between dancing boys and the notional equity and PM markets. When the Fed has a mandate that effectively devalues the purchasing power of existing fiat currency then what will be lost when it all goes tits up?

It's not as if the currency being printed is backed by anything of real value. Sure if it all goes down then some people will lose their jobs and liberated from their captures. Yes, exactly, this is the same propaganda BS as that article on ZH today with the BBC bemoaning the state of our civilization Here's our Cookie Policy. How to report offensive comments.

Goldman Asks: Are Markets Rationally, Or Irrationally, Exuberant? | Zero Hedge

Home Contributors Newsletter Donate More Store ZH-TShirt Glossary Archive Manifesto RSS. INTRoDuCiNG ReBu, THe WORLD'S FiRST RoBoT CeO Apr 18, 7: Perspectives along party lines A fascinating feature of post-election sentiment is the divergence in assessments of the economic outlook along party lines.

Rationally or irrationally exuberant? Printer-friendly version Apr 18, 7: Comment viewing options Flat list - collapsed Flat list - expanded Threaded list - collapsed Threaded list - expanded. Date - newest first Date - oldest first. Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes. Engali Apr 18, 7: Are Policy Tools Rationally, Or Irrationally, Exuberant?

Irrational exuberance - Wikipedia

There, fixed that headline for ya Tyler. Engali Apr 19, 4: I am Jobe Apr 18, 7: Wall Street Giant Blames Politics For Trading Woes http: Sonny Brakes Apr 18, 7: Pareto Apr 18, 7: Not Rationally, Or Irrationally, Exuberant or a bubble. Blankfuck Apr 18, Create new account Request new password.

To prevent automated spam submissions leave this field empty. Zero Hedge Reads Acting Man Alt-Market Benzinga Boom Bust Blog Capitalist Exploits China Financial Markets Chris Martenson's Blog Contrary Investor Daneric's Elliott Waves Dr.

stock market exuberance rational or not

New Comments Not quite the same because FoggyWorld. No, in all NoDebt. In an accounting of the SpanishGoop.

I just wanna know how the LyLo. Time for the Dennis Rodman thunderchief. Democrats Get Crushed In Georgia Election Despite 7x Spending Advantage. At Least It Tried".

Will It Be Economic Collapse? We Won't Have To Guess Much Longer Russian, NATO Jets In Near Standoff After F Buzzes Defense Minister's Airplane.

stock market exuberance rational or not

How to report offensive comments Notice on Racial Discrimination. RanSquawk News RANsquawk sources note that the recent ACAD strength has been RANsquawk note that recent strength in Netflix NFLX could be Cleveland Research are negative on Caterpillar CAT.

Footlocker FL still a buying opportunity, according to Cowen. Goldman Sachs sees US inflation expectations as 'well anchored DAILY US EQUITY OPENING NEWS: Nike NKE may begin selling directly Incyte trades up, levels to watch. Boeing announces order from Copa Airlines for 15 MAX 10s. RH rises sharply, levels to watch. Twitter calls active as shares move higher. NASDAQ market internals summary.

Irrational Exuberance

NYSE market internals summary. Restoration Hardware put volume heavy and directionally bearish. BMO Capital Starts Xylem XYL at Outperform. Existing Home Sales 5. Blue Buffalo Pet Products BUFF Rated New Sell at Off Wall Street. Discrimination Notice Cookie Policy.

Rating 4,9 stars - 841 reviews
inserted by FC2 system